Recalibrating Risk: PREVENT Model Suggests Lower Statin Threshold Keeps Eligibility Stable
A revised risk calculator (PREVENT) lowers estimated cardiovascular risk, and adopting a 3% 10-year threshold would keep statin eligibility similar to current levels.
A JAMA Cardiology research letter used the PREVENT risk model—built from larger, more contemporary, and more diverse U.S. data and accounting for chronic kidney disease, diabetes, obesity, and other metabolic conditions—to compare statin-eligibility thresholds with the older 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). Applying the PCE’s 7.5% 10-year risk cutoff to PREVENT classified far fewer adults as eligible for statins. The analysis shows that lowering the treatment threshold to a 3% 10-year risk under PREVENT would yield roughly the same number of people qualifying for statin therapy as under current practice. Experts note trade-offs: statins reduce cardiovascular events by 25–40% but carry side effects including muscle pain and an approximate 3% absolute increase in diabetes risk over 10 years. Cardiologists differ on the ideal cutoff, and AHA/ACC guidance based on newer equations is expected in the spring; individual clinician–patient discussions remain essential.
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